A significant weather event in the northern hemisphere – the collapse of the polar vortex – has been forecasted and has the potential to severely impact the US, according to scientists.
The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that surrounds the Earth’s North and South poles. It’s presence is most potent in winter months. Its collapse is a disruption of the wind pattern encircling the poles and this disruption could push the cold air southwards.
Meteorologist Judah Cohen from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA explains, “The polar vortex can weaken or even split, which disrupts the single vortex. It can induce weather extremes in middle latitudes like in the US.” The details of these disruptions, including when and where they might occur, are difficult to predict.
A 2021 study published in the journal Science showed that colder winters in the US and Europe are linked to warmer Arctic temperatures, a phenomenon that can also disrupt the polar vortex. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, with record-breaking temperatures reported in recent years. More details of this study can be found at www.sciencemag.org.
When the vortex is strong, the low-pressure system keeps the frigid air circulating above the Arctic. However, when the vortex weakens or splits, it allows the cold air to spill out and surge towards other areas, potentially affecting the US over weeks or even months.
A report cited
Wiley Online Library shown that intense winter weather systems, potentially influenced by a weakened or split polar vortex, resulted in the US’s worst cold weather outbreak in the last decade in February 2021.
However, a disrupted polar vortex does not guarantee colder weather for the lower 48 states. As noted by Cohen, “There could be colder-than-normal conditions in the Eastern and Central parts of the US, even if we have a polar vortex disruption. A lot depends on the timing and magnitude of the disruption.”
Through continuous research, scientists strive to improve the prediction accuracy for the effects of a polar vortex collapse, critical to not only understanding the Earth’s changing climate but also for practical applications, such as predicting and preparing for severe weather conditions.
Last modified: March 1, 2025
